Wild Witches

About Wild Witches

The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.

The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.

Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.

About Wild Witches

I would be lying if I said it’s going to be easy to accept this transition and to refocus my efforts elsewhere. However, I am eternally grateful for having been given this excellent opportunity and have enjoyed every aspect of being involved in the Calvin Ayre organization. What is coming next may still not be defined, but that’s what is going to make the next chapter exciting; it can bring essentially anything and everything. What I know, regardless of what happens next, is that I will continue to be who I am and will continue to provide the same level of professionalism and integrity that have brought me this far, and which are paramount for everyone involved with Calvin Ayre. I thank everyone at the organization for their undeniable commitment to excellence and thank all of our supporters and readers for allowing us to share with them our experiences and knowledge. 

If anyone wants to reach out to me, I can always be found on LinkedIn.

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How to play Wild Witches

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.