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About Cyber Heist
It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.
A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.
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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
About Cyber Heist
The first is the ongoing cannibalization of in-person gaming by online casinos. The Mid-Atlantic is home to four of the country’s eight legal iGaming states: Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
While in-person casino revenue declined in Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, iGaming reported GGR growth in each jurisdiction. iGaming revenue in New Jersey was up 4.4%, Pennsylvania’s online casinos saw GGR climb almost 6%, and Delaware iGaming surged 35%.
Though Maryland, Virginia, and New York do not have iGaming, prediction markets offering trading on everything from sports to politics continue to make their platforms accessible. Controversial sweepstakes casinos additionally continue to operate in Virginia and Maryland.
